Welsh Conservatives gain ground ahead of election, new poll shows


Andrew RT Davies, Mark Drakeford, Adam Price (Mark Hawkins/Barcroft Media/Getty). Senedd image: Gwalia.

A new opinion poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University suggests that the Welsh Conservatives have gained support ahead of polling day on Thursday (6 May).


The poll shows Welsh Labour matching its 2016 performance— an outcome First Minister Mark Drakeford said would be a "fantastic result" in the current circumstances.

The poll puts Plaid Cymru in third place; also matching the result it had in the last Senedd election.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll, Labour is up by 1% point, while the Conservatives are up by 5% points.


Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru has fallen 4% points since the previous poll.


The poll suggests that Labour would fall short of an overall majority.


Constituency voting intention:


LAB: 36% (+1%)

CON: 29% (+5%)

PC: 20% (-4)

REFUK: 4% (-)

LDEM: 3% (-)

GRN: 2% (-)

ABOLISH: 2% (-)


Regional list:


The regional list suggests Abolish the Welsh Assembly has a chance of winning seats in the Senedd.


Meanwhile, UKIP would lose all but one of the seven seats that it won in 2016 at the party's high-water mark.


LAB: 31%

CON: 25%

PC: 21%

ABOLISH: 7%

GRN: 5%

LDEM: 4%

UKIP: 3%


YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,071 Welsh voters (aged 16+) for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between 2nd and 4th May.

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