A new opinion poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows Labour equalling their worst ever performance in a Senedd election.
Despite topping the poll, Labour are on course to win 26 seats in May— five short of an overall majority.
This would see the party equalling their worst ever Senedd performance in 2007.
The poll also shows Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives battling it out for second place.
Plaid is projected to win 17 seats in total— equalling its best ever Senedd result in 1999.
However, we should be cautious in interpreting these data...
The poll projects Plaid Cymru will narrowly capture Blaenau Gwent and Llanelli from Labour. However, constituency-level dynamics might make this outcome less likely than the arithmetic alone suggests.
The Welsh Conservatives are on course to win 14 seats overall— three more than in the previous Senedd election in 2016.
However, the party is not projected to break into Labour's 'red wall' in the north east as previous polls have suggested.
Overall seat projection:
Labour: 26 seats (24 constituency, 2 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 17 seats (8 constituency, 9 regional)
Conservatives: 14 seats (7 constituency, 7 regional)
Abolish the Assembly: 2 seats (2 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
'Results'
Constituency (with changes on previous poll):
Labour: 35% (+3)
Conservatives: 24% (-6)
Plaid Cymru: 24% (+1)
Reform UK: 4% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 3% (-2)
Greens: 3% (+1)
Abolish the Assembly: 3% (no change)
Others: 3% (+1)
Regional list (with changes on previous poll):
Labour: 33% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+1)
Conservatives: 22% (-6)
Abolish the Assembly: 7% (no change)
Greens: 5% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 4% (no change)
Others: 6% (+2)