Labour pulls 10 points ahead of Tories in Senedd opinion poll


Andrew RT Davies, Mark Drakeford, Adam Price (Mark Hawkins/Barcroft Media/Getty). (Senedd image: Gwalia).

A new opinion poll conducted by Opinium Research has given Welsh Labour a 10-point lead over the Conservatives just two weeks before the Senedd election.


The poll conducted between 9 - 19 April on behalf of Sky News puts Labour on 29 seats; two shy of a majority.


The Conservatives are projected to win 19 seats, Plaid Cymru 10, and the Liberal Democrats and UKIP are projected to win one seat a piece.


Constituency voting intention (with changes on 2016 result):


LAB: 40% (+5)

CON: 30% (+9)

PC: 19% (-2)

LDEM: 4% (-4)


Regional voting intention (with changes on 2016 result):


LAB: 38% (+6)

CON: 27% (+7)

PC: 19% (-2)

GRN: 5% (+2)

LDEM: 4% (-3)

UKIP: 2% (-11)


Labour surge


The uptick in Labour support in the Opinium poll could be attributed to a number of factors, including the popularity of leader, and incumbent First Minister, Mark Drakeford.


The poll reveals that Drakeford ranks first in Welsh voters' preference for next First Minister, with almost a third (29%) favouring him as the next leader.


Preference for First Minister:


Mark Drakeford: 29%

Andrew RT Davies: 10%

Adam Price: 8%

Neil Hamilton: 3%

Jane Dodds: 3%

None: 14%

Don't know: 32%


Speaking to Lewis Goodall, Drakeford said that he thought the 2019 General Election results reflected a "unique" set of circumstances, which have since evaporated.


These factors might include so-called 'Brexit fatigue' and the unpopularity of then Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

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